THE TABLE OF ODDS AND CHANCES
If a punter wants to make a profit from his / her gambling (investing) then knowing the TABLE OF ODDS AND CHANCES is essential. I have seen it tucked away on a remote page of the Racing Post but without any explantion. Why no operating instructions? Is it because they do not want you to understand? I've also never seen an explanation on Channel 4 Racing, BBC or At The Races (I do not have Racing UK). The racing press generally do a good job of educating punters but what about telling them about true value! Don't their readers / viewers deserve to be told? We see fabulous features about every other racing subject bar this one, it is not as if it would take long to explain. Punters could be excused for thinking a value bet is anything above 5/1. When there is a short priced favourite we often get a presenter / journalist giving a "value" alternative. In fact even an odds-on chance can be true value.
But what is true VALUE.
We all know that for every £1 bet at 3/1 wins £3 plus our £1 stake back, making a return of £4.Now with each price; add the first figure to the second figure and
divide the
second figure by that resultant figure. Then convert the fraction to a
percentage. Confused?
In the case of 3/1.
3 + 1 = 4
1 divided by 4 = 0.25 = 25% and therefore the true chance of a 25%
chance
is 3/1.
In the case of 11/4.
11 + 4 = 15
4 divided by 15 = 0.267 = 26.7% therefore the true chance of a 26.7%
chance
is 11/4.
Any horse you believe to have a 27% chance (no need to be exact)
should be backed at better than 11/4.
And so on.
Putting the table into practice
In a four horse race where Bert the bookmaker believes all runners
have the same chance of winning. All four are thought to have a 25%
chance (25 x 4 = 100). He will not offer 3/1 but adds his percentage profit
and goes 11/4
each of four, in this case working to 106.8%, (26.7 x 4)). Bert does not know
the percentage chance of the horses involved, he
only thinks
he knows (or rather his odds compiler thinks he knows). It
is only his
opinion against yours. If you agree
with this assesment and believe all
the horses have less than a 26.7% chance there is NO BET. If
you think
one particular horse ( A in the
examle below) has a 30%
chance then that is a good bet at 11/4. A 30%
chance is between 5/2
(28.6%) and 9/4 (30.8%). Winning 30 out of 100 bets at 11/4
would return £112.50, £12.50 profit (remembering
£1 at 11 / 4 wins £2.75 + £1 stake = £3.75, 30
x £3.75 = £112.50) for every £100 staked (assuming an
equal staking plan).
| Horse | Compiler's Assessment | Equivalent Odds | Offered Prices | Your Assessment | Odds Equivalent | |||
| A | 25% | 3/1 | 11/4 | 26.7% |
30% | between 5/2 and 9/4
(30.8%) |
||
| B | 25% | 3/1 | 11/4 | 26.7% |
20% | 4/1 |
||
| C | 25% | 3/1 | 11/4 | 26.7% |
25% | 3/1 |
||
| D | 25% | 3/1 | 11/4 | 26.7% |
25% | 3/1 |
||
| 100% |
106.8% |
100% |
||||||
The bet to have is not always
the horse you believe has the best chance
of winning. Lets take another example of a four horse race (below).
After
studying form you believe A has a 20% = 4/1 chance, B
30% = almost 9/4
(30.8%), C 35% = 15/8 and D
15% = almost 11/2
(15.4%). The best
bookmaker prices you can find are A 7/2, B 2/1, C 6/4 and D 13/2.
At 13/2 the outsider D is
a good bet
even though you think it has the worst chance
of winning
(less than half the chance of the favourite). A 15% strike rate at 13/2
would again return £112.50, £12.50 profit
(15 x £7.50) for every £100 staked. The
horse you believe has the best chance
of wining is C with 35%, however
this would in fact be an awful bet at
6/4. A
35 % strike rate at 6/4
would only
return £87.50, a £12.50 DEFECIT
(35 x £2.50) for every £100 staked (equal stakes). Only if
you
could get better than 15/8 would C be a good bet.
| Horse |
Your
Assessment |
Equivalent Odds |
Offered
Prices |
||
| A |
20% |
4/1 |
7/2 (22.2%) |
||
| B |
30% |
around 9/4 (30.8%) |
2/1 (33.3%) |
||
| C |
35% |
15/8 (34.8%) |
6/4 (40%) |
||
| D |
15% |
around
11/2 (15.4%) |
13/2
(13.3%) |
||
| 100% |
108.8% |
||||
Below is the Table Of Odds And Chances, sometimes called the True
Odds Table. To
find the percentage chance of an odds-on shot subtract its odds-against
equivalent from 100%. e.g. 3/1 = 25% therefore 1/3 = 100% -
25% = 75%. If you
think a horse has a 32% chance it should be backed
at better
than 85/40, a 12.5% chance better than 7/1, 6.7% 14/1, 3.8% 25/1etc.
| Odds |
Fraction |
Percentage
|
Odds |
Fraction |
Percentage
|
Odds |
Fraction |
Percentage |
||||
| Evens | 0.500 | 50.0% | 7/2 |
0.222 | 22.2% |
16/1 |
0.059 |
5.9% |
||||
| 21/20 |
0.488 |
48.8% |
4/1 |
0.200 |
20.0% |
18/1 |
0.053 |
5.3% |
||||
| 11/10 |
0.476 |
47.6% |
9/2 |
0.182 |
18.2% |
20/1 |
0.048 |
4.8% |
||||
| 6/5 |
0.455 |
45.5% |
5/1 |
0.167 |
16.7% |
22/1 |
0.043 |
4.3% |
||||
| 5/4 |
0.444 |
44.4% |
11/2 |
0.154 |
15.4% |
25/1 |
0.038 |
3.8% |
||||
| 11/8 |
0.421 |
42.1% |
6/1 |
0.143 |
14.3% |
28/1 |
0.034 |
3.4% |
||||
| 6/4 |
0.400 |
40.0% |
13/2 |
0.133 |
13.3% |
33/1 |
0.030 |
3.0% |
||||
| 13/8 |
0.381 |
38.1% |
7/1 |
0.125 |
12.5% |
40/1 |
0.024 |
2.4% |
||||
| 7/4 |
0.364 |
36.4% |
15/2 |
0.117 |
11.7% |
50/1 |
0.020 |
2.0% |
||||
| 9/5 |
0.357 |
35.7% |
8/1 |
0.111 |
11.1% |
66/1 |
0.015 |
1.5% |
||||
| 15/8 |
0.348 |
34.8% |
17/2 |
0.105 |
10.5% |
80/1 |
0.012 |
1.2% |
||||
| 2/1 |
0.333 |
33.3% |
9/1 |
0.100 |
10.0% |
100/1 |
0.010 |
1.0% |
||||
| 85/40 |
0.320 |
32.0% |
10/1 |
0.091 |
9.1% |
125/1 |
0.008 |
0.8% |
||||
| 9/4 |
0.308 |
30.8% |
11/1 |
0.083 |
8.3% |
150/1 |
0.007 |
0.7% |
||||
| 5/2 |
0.286 |
28.6% |
12/1 |
0.077 |
7.7% |
200/1 |
0.005 |
0.5% |
||||
| 11/4 |
0.267 |
26.7% |
13/1 |
0.071 |
7.1% |
250/1 |
0.004 |
0.4% |
||||
| 3/1 |
0.250 |
25.0% |
14/1 |
0.067 |
6.7% |
300/1 |
0.003 |
0.3% |
||||
| 100/30 |
0.231 |
23.1% |
15/1 |
0.062 |
6.2% |
500/1 |
0.002 |
0.2% |
||||
It may be an idea to start off working races out to a smaller
percentage (say 95% ), at least until confident you are a good judge.
You will miss some winners but it will cut down mistakes and reduce the
number of bets. When betting to 100% on the exchanges remember to allow
for their commission, a horse who is only just value may not be value
atall.
How to find the value is up to you but you will need a good form
book, maybe Timeform or Raceform. It is impossible to find the
value bet unless you study form.
Personally I find the Timeform Perspective an excellent publication.
The Racing Post is a help but is unlikely to be enough on its
own.
When you find a good bet at a big price do not get carried away. A
horse with a 6% chance is a good bet at 33/1 but remember it still only
has a 6% chance of winning. There may
be more than one value bet but there is nothing stopping you
from backing two, three or more horses in a race.
Hopefully you now understand the Table Of Odds And Chances and can put it to use. Any punter who wants to show a profit should memorize it. When viewing a bookmakers board it is a great help to see the odds as percentages. Good luck in finding True Value and if you have any questions please get in touch.